克魯曼:『我們再也沒有理由相信,華爾街的術士對社會有任何正面的貢獻,遑論可以名正言順的享有那般優渥的薪酬。』
拒絕華爾街術士再玩金錢遊戲
|
![]() |
‧克魯曼 2009/05/05 |
http://mag.udn.com/mag/world/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=192867 |
![]() |
![]() |
【克魯曼/陳世欽譯】
2007年7月15日,紐約時報刊載一篇題為「富中之富,新鍍金時代的榮耀」的文章,著墨最多的「新巨人」是前花旗集團董事長魏爾(Sanford Weill)。他認為,他與金融界的同儕因為對社會貢獻卓著而得以賺進巨額財富。
這篇文章刊登後不久,魏爾構築的金融巨廈迅即瓦解,並在整個過程中衍生巨大的附帶損害。即使我們設法避免讓大蕭條捲土重來,全球經濟勢必費時數年才能自這場危機中復元。
這足以解釋為什麼我們應該為紐時的另一篇報導文章感到困惱。它指出,繼去年下挫後,部分投資銀行的高階主管薪酬已經再度提高,回到2007年的水平。
為什麼令人困惱?容我說明如次。
首先,我們再也沒有理由相信,華爾街的術士對社會有任何正面的貢獻,遑論可以名正言順的享有那般優渥的薪酬。
請記住,2007年華爾街金光閃閃,其實是相當新的現象。1930年代至1980年代左右,金融是一成不變且乏味的企業領域,從業者的平均薪酬並未高於其他產業領域,卻使經濟巨輪不斷滾動。
既然如此,為什麼部分銀行家突然開始累積巨大的財富?我們聽到的解釋是,這是對其金融創新能力的回報。不過在現階段,除了以各種不斷改進的新方法製造泡沫,逃避規範,設計如假包換的龐氏騙局之外,我們實在很難想到最近有任何真正有益於社會的重要金融創新。
不妨參考聯準會主席柏南克最近的一次演說。他試圖為金融創新辯護。他所謂的「良好」金融創新包括,一:信用卡。這其實不是什麼新點子。二:透支保護。三:次級房貸。這是銀行家據以坐擁巨額薪酬的關鍵?
讀者可能會認為,我們擁有自由市場經濟體制,民間企業有權自行決定員工薪酬的多寡。然而這引伸到我的第二個論點:華爾街再也不是民間企業的一環。它是國家的一部分,完全仰賴政府的援助,一如「貧窮家庭臨時救助」(又名福利)的援助對象。
我說的不只是「問題資產拯救計畫」(TARP)項下,總額約7,000億美元的承諾資金。還有聯準會大幅擴充的信用,聯邦房屋貸款銀行的大舉借貸,納稅人背書的AIG合約收益,聯邦存款保險公司大幅擴張擔保,以及更廣泛的,聯邦政府為每一個所謂大到不能倒,或因為戰略地位重要而不能倒的金融機構提供的支援。
部分讀者可能認為,拯救華爾街是保護整體經濟的必要手段。事實上,我同意這種看法。不過由於其間涉及納稅人的血汗錢,金融公司的角色應該類似公用事業,不應恢復2007年的舊態。
此外,任由利用錢勢為所欲為的人享有豐厚薪酬不僅可恨,甚且危險。畢竟,銀行家為什麼敢於冒如此巨大的風險?因為成功,或甚至短暫的成功假象,足以為他們提供巨大的回報;即使執行長搞垮公司也仍能取得巨額紅利並一走了之。
現在,我們又看到某些人在聯邦政府支持下,玩起危險的遊戲,並享有類似的待遇。
問題出在哪裡?為什麼巨額薪資再度流向最上層?有人說,這是留住人才所必須。這種說詞似是而非:在金融界失業嚴重的情況下,這些人究將何去何從?
金融公司再度支付巨額薪酬的真正原因是,它們有錢。它們已再度賺錢(雖然幅度不如它們所說之大),為什麼不可以這麼做?畢竟在聯邦擔保下,它們得以低廉的成本借錢,並以高出許多的利息放貸。這有如盡情吃喝,保持愉快的心情,因為你明天可能受到管理。
也許不會。部分媒體認為,風暴已經過去:股市上漲,經濟衰退的趨勢可能已漸漸穩定,歐巴馬政府可能聲色俱厲的訓斥銀行家幾次後,放對方一馬。
無論對或錯,銀行家似乎認為,回復舊態為期不遠。
我們只能期待,我們的領導人證明這些人是錯的,並落實真正的改革。
2008年,薪酬高得過分的銀行家拿著別人的錢冒險,使全球經濟不支倒地。我們不能任由他們再來一次。
(作者Paul Krugman是紐約時報專欄作家)
【2009-04-28/經濟日報】
|
克魯曼文中一開始提到的文章在紐時上還找得到。如果大家記憶猶新的話,2007年7月開啟了第一波的股災,台股亦未能倖免,同年聯準會兩次降息,股市正式轉為空頭,接下來就是大家不願意面對的2008這個空頭年,期間曾因政治選舉因素,氣氛轉趨樂觀,但是旁之末節的鼓舞,比不上總經真正的衰退。
看一下2007年那個紙醉金迷的年分吧,這篇文章應該算是集吹捧之能事。
以下轉載自紐約時報
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/business/15gilded.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/business/15gilded.html
The Richest of the Rich, Proud of a New Gilded Age
Corrections Appended
The tributes to Sanford I. Weill line the walls of the carpeted hallway that leads to his skyscraper office, with its panoramic view of Central Park. A dozen framed magazine covers, their colors as vivid as an Andy Warhol painting, are the most arresting. Each heralds Mr. Weill’s genius in assembling Citigroup into the most powerful financial institution since the House of Morgan a century ago.
His achievement required political clout, and that, too, is on display. Soon after he formed Citigroup, Congress repealed a Depression-era law that prohibited goliaths like the one Mr. Weill had just put together anyway, combining commercial and investment banking, insurance and stock brokerage operations. A trophy from the victory — a pen that President Bill Clinton used to sign the repeal — hangs, framed, near the magazine covers.
These days, Mr. Weill and many of the nation’s very wealthy chief executives, entrepreneurs and financiers echo an earlier era — the Gilded Age before World War I — when powerful enterprises, dominated by men who grew immensely rich, ushered in the industrialization of the United States. The new titans often see themselves as pillars of a similarly prosperous and expansive age, one in which their successes and their philanthropy have made government less important than it once was.
“People can look at the last 25 years and say this is an incredibly unique period of time,” Mr. Weill said. “We didn’t rely on somebody else to build what we built, and we shouldn’t rely on somebody else to provide all the services our society needs.”
Those earlier barons disappeared by the 1920s and, constrained by the Depression and by the greater government oversight and high income tax rates that followed, no one really took their place. Then, starting in the late 1970s, as the constraints receded, new tycoons gradually emerged, and now their concentrated wealth has made the early years of the 21st century truly another Gilded Age.
Only twice before over the last century has 5 percent of the national income gone to families in the upper one-one-hundredth of a percent of the income distribution — currently, the almost 15,000 families with incomes of $9.5 million or more a year, according to an analysis of tax returns by the economists Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley and Thomas Piketty at the Paris School of Economics.
Such concentration at the very top occurred in 1915 and 1916, as the Gilded Age was ending, and again briefly in the late 1920s, before the stock market crash. Now it is back, and Mr. Weill is prominent among the new titans. His net worth exceeds $1 billion, not counting the $500 million he says he has already given away, in the open-handed style of Andrew Carnegie and the other great philanthropists of the earlier age.
At 74, just over a year into retirement as Citigroup chairman, Mr. Weill sees in Carnegie’s life aspects of his own. Andrew Carnegie, an impoverished Scottish immigrant, built a steel empire in Pittsburgh, taking risks that others shunned, just as the demand for steel was skyrocketing. He then gave away his fortune, reasoning that he was lucky to have been in the right spot at the right moment and he owed the community for his good luck — not in higher wages for his workers, but in philanthropic distribution of his wealth.
Mr. Weill’s beginnings were similarly inauspicious. A son of immigrants from Poland, raised in Brooklyn, a so-so college student, he landed on Wall Street in a low-level job in the 1950s. Harnessing entrepreneurial energy, deftness as a deal maker and an appetite for risk, with a rising stock market pulling him along, he built a financial empire that, in his view, successfully broke through the stultifying constraints that flowed from the New Deal. They were constraints not just on what business could or could not do, but on every high earner’s take-home pay.
“I once thought how lucky the Carnegies and the Rockefellers were because they made their money before there was an income tax,” Mr. Weill said, never believing in his younger days that deregulation and tax cuts, starting in the late 1970s, would bring back many of the easier conditions of the Gilded Age. “I felt that everything of any great consequence was really all made in the past,” he said. “That turned out not to be true and it is not true today.”
The Question of Talent
Other very wealthy men in the new Gilded Age talk of themselves as having a flair for business not unlike Derek Jeter’s “unique talent” for baseball, as Leo J. Hindery Jr. put it. “I think there are people, including myself at certain times in my career,” Mr. Hindery said, “who because of their uniqueness warrant whatever the market will bear.”
He counts himself as a talented entrepreneur, having assembled from scratch a cable television sports network, the YES Network. “Jeter makes an unbelievable amount of money,” said Mr. Hindery, who now manages a private equity fund, “but you look at him and you say, ‘Wow, I cannot find another ballplayer with that same set of skills.’ ”
A handful of critics among the new elite, or close to it, are scornful of such self-appraisal. “I don’t see a relationship between the extremes of income now and the performance of the economy,” Paul A. Volcker, a former Federal Reserve Board chairman, said in an interview, challenging the contentions of the very rich that they are, more than others, the driving force of a robust economy.
The great fortunes today are largely a result of the long bull market in stocks, Mr. Volcker said. Without rising stock prices, stock options would not have become a major source of riches for financiers and chief executives. Stock prices rise for a lot of reasons, Mr. Volcker said, including ones that have nothing to do with the actions of these people.
“The market did not go up because businessmen got so much smarter,” he said, adding that the 1950s and 1960s, which the new tycoons denigrate as bureaucratic and uninspiring, “were very good economic times and no one was making what they are making now.”
James D. Sinegal, chief executive of Costco, the discount retailer, echoes that sentiment. “Obscene salaries send the wrong message through a company,” he said. “The message is that all brilliance emanates from the top; that the worker on the floor of the store or the factory is insignificant.”
A legendary chief executive from an earlier era is similarly critical. He is Robert L. Crandall, 71, who as president and then chairman and chief executive, led American Airlines through the early years of deregulation and pioneered the development of the hub-and-spoke system for managing airline routes. He retired in 1997, never having made more than $5 million a year, in the days before upper-end incomes really took off.
He is speaking out now, he said, because he no longer has to worry that his “radical views” might damage the reputation of American or that of the companies he served until recently as a director. The nation’s corporate chiefs would be living far less affluent lives, Mr. Crandall said, if fate had put them in, say, Uzbekistan instead of the United States, “where they are the beneficiaries of a market system that rewards a few people in extraordinary ways and leaves others behind.”
“The way our society equalizes incomes,” he argued, “is through much higher taxes than we have today. There is no other way.”
The New Tycoons
The new Gilded Age has created only one fortune as large as those of the Rockefellers, the Carnegies and the Vanderbilts — that of Bill Gates, according to various compilations. His net worth, measured as a share of the economy’s output, ranks him fifth among the 30 all-time wealthiest American families, just ahead of Carnegie. Only one other living billionaire makes the cut: Warren E. Buffett, in 16th place.
Individual fortunes nearly a century ago were so large that just 30 tycoons — Rockefeller was by far the wealthiest — had accumulated net worth equal to 5 percent of the national income. Their wealth flowed mainly from the empires they built in manufacturing, railroads, oil, coal, urban transit and mass retailing as the United States grew into the world’s largest industrial economy.
Today the fortunes of the very wealthiest are spread more widely. In addition to stock and stock options, low-interest credit has brought wealth to more families — by, for example, facilitating the sale of individual businesses for much greater sums than in the past. The fortunes amassed in hedge funds and in private equity often stem from deals involving huge amounts of easy credit and vast pools of capital available for investment.
The high-tech boom and the Internet unfolded against this backdrop. The rising stock market multiplied the wealth of Bill Gates as his software became the industry standard. It did the same for numerous others who financed start-ups on a shoestring and then went public at enormous gain.
Over a longer period, the market lifted the value of Mr. Buffett’s judicious investments and timely acquisitions, and he emerged as the extraordinarily wealthy Sage of Omaha, in effect, a baron of the new Gilded Age whose views are strikingly similar to those of Carnegie and Mr. Weill.
Like them, Mr. Buffett, 78, sees himself as lucky, having had the good fortune, as he put it, to have been born in America, white and male, and “wired for asset allocation” just when all four really paid off. He dwelt on his good fortune in a recent appearance at a fund-raiser for Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is vying for Mr. Buffett’s support of her presidential candidacy.
“This is a significantly richer country than 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago,” he declared, backing his assertion with a favorite statistic. The national income, divided by the population, is a very abundant $45,000 per capita, he said, a number that reflects an affluent nation but also obscures the lopsided income distribution intertwined with the prosperity.
“Society should place an initial emphasis on abundance,” Mr. Buffett argued, but “then should continuously strive” to redistribute the abundance more equitably.
No income tax existed in Carnegie’s day to do this, and neither Mr. Buffett nor Mr. Weill push for sharply higher income tax rates now, although Mr. Buffett criticizes the present tax code as unfairly skewed in his favor. Like Carnegie, philanthropy is their preference. “I want to give away my money rather than have somebody take it away,” Mr. Weill said.
Mr. Buffett is already well down that path. Most of his wealth is in the stock of his company, Berkshire Hathaway, and he is transferring the majority of that stock to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation so the Gateses can “materially expand” their giving.
“In my will,” he has written, echoing Carnegie’s last wishes, “I’ve stipulated that the proceeds from all Berkshire shares I still own at death are to be used for philanthropic purposes.”
Revisionist History
The new tycoons describe a history that gives them a heroic role. The American economy, they acknowledge, did grow more rapidly on average in the decades immediately after World War II than it is growing today. Incomes rose faster than inflation for most Americans and the spread between rich and poor was much less. But the United States was far and away the dominant economy, and government played a strong supporting role. In such a world, the new tycoons argue, business leaders needed only to be good managers.
Then, with globalization, with America competing once again for first place as strenuously as it had in the first Gilded Age, the need grew for a different type of business leader — one more entrepreneurial, more daring, more willing to take risks, more like the rough and tumble tycoons of the first Gilded Age. Lew Frankfort, chairman and chief executive of Coach, the manufacturer and retailer of trendy upscale handbags, who was among the nation’s highest paid chief executives last year, recaps the argument.
“The professional class that developed in business in the ’50s and ’60s,” he said, “was able as America grew at very steady rates to become industry leaders and move their organizations forward in most categories: steel, autos, housing, roads.”
That changed with the arrival of “the technological age,” in Mr. Frankfort’s view. Innovation became a requirement, in addition to good management skills — and innovation has played a role in Coach’s marketing success. “To be successful,” Mr. Frankfort said, “you now needed vision, lateral thinking, courage and an ability to see things, not the way th